随机需求下考虑配送时间的第三方物流服务决策

Third-Party Logistics Service Decision Considering Delivery Time with Stochastic Demand

摘要: 本文针对一个零售商、一个3PL企业组成的供应链二级系统，建立了零售商将物流服务外包给第三方物流企业的服务决策模型。研究了在随机需求信息下考虑配送时间的零售商与第三方物流服务商的最优决策。通过数值分析讨论了在时间敏感的随机需求下，第三方物流服务供应商参与管理零售商物流对零售商、第三方物流企业的最优决策和利润的影响。研究发现，需求不确定性越大，第三方物流企业与零售商更倾向于做出保守决策，且利润在某个阶段内会随着不确定性的大小逐渐增大。此外，本文也证明了风险分担损失比例的大小对最优配送时间无影响，但对零售商的服务订购量与利润呈正向影响，对第三方物流服务提供商的利润呈反向影响。

Abstract: The paper establishes a service decision model of two levels supply chain secondary system com-posed of a retailer and a 3PL enterprise. The optimal decision of retailers and third-party logistics service providers considering delivery time under stochastic demand information is studied. Through numerical analysis, the mode which third-party logistics companies participate in man-aging retailers’ logistics has an influence on profit of retailers and third-party logistics enterprises under the time-sensitive random demand. The study found that the greater the uncertainty of demand, the third-party logistics companies and retailers are more inclined to make conservative decisions, and the profit will gradually increase with the uncertainty in a certain stage. In addition, this paper also proves that the proportion of the risk-sharing loss has no effect on the optimal de-livery time, but it has a positive impact on the retailer’s service order quantity and profit, and has a negative impact on the third-party logistics service provider’s profit.