塑料瓶装水禁令影响力的定量评估

Quantitative Evaluation of the Influence of Ban on Plastic Bottled Water

摘要: 2013年以来，塑料瓶装水禁令在美国的许多地方被通过并执行。禁令的支持者认为日益增长的塑料制品产生大量的塑料垃圾，给地球带来了严重的环境危害；而禁令的反对者认为，在危机情况下塑料瓶装水属于必需用品，重要性不言而喻，他们认为禁令还会在相关工业中造成的失业问题。本文利用分段线性稳健回归模型对环境、经济等指标进行建模，给出了塑料瓶装水禁令对单指标影响力的度量。在此基础上利用层次分析方法来确定环境、经济等指标的权重，从而给出塑料瓶装水禁令综合影响力的定量评估。

Abstract: Since 2013, the ban on plastic bottled water has been passed and enforced in many parts of the United States. Proponents of the ban believe that growing plastic products produce a large amount of plastic waste, which has brought serious environmental harm to the earth. Opponents of the ban believe that plastic bottled water is a necessary product in crisis, and its importance is self-evident. They believe that the ban will also cause unemployment in related industries. In this paper, a piecewise linear robust regression model is used to model environmental and economic indicators, and a measure of the impact of plastic bottled water ban on a single indicator is given. On this basis, AHP is used to determine the weight of environmental and economic indicators, so as to give a quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive impact of the ban on plastic bottled water.