技术创新如何抑制碳强度？——基于能源消费结构的中介效应研究

How Can Technological Innovation Restrain Carbon Intensity?—Research on the Intermediary Effect Based on Energy Consumption Structure

摘要: 低碳技术创新是应对温室效应的有效措施之一，探究技术创新对碳排放的作用机制具有重要的现实意义。本文基于2004~2016中国省级面板数据，通过中介效应检验方法，研究了低碳技术创新、能源消费结构和碳强度三者的关系；并结合我国东、中、西三个地区的特点分析各地区能源消费结构的中介效应。通过研究发现：能源消费结构具有显著的中介效应，技术创新对碳强度的抑制效应有37.59%是通过优化能源消费结构实现。基于EKC假说与实证结果发现我国当前经济水平尚未到达“拐点”，存在环境规制的“绿色悖论”。通过分区域研究发现在我国东部，能源消费结构具有显著的中介作用，技术创新对碳强度有显著的抑制效用、且东部地区经济水平已经达到EKC假说中的“拐点”在中、西部地区能源消费结构的中介效应不显著，并且技术创新也无法有效抑制当地碳排放。

Abstract: Low-carbon technology innovation is one of the effective measures to deal with the greenhouse effect. It is of great practical significance to explore the mechanism of technology innovation on carbon emissions. Based on 2004-2016 provincial panel data of China, this paper studies the relationship among low-carbon technology innovation, energy consumption structure and carbon intensity through the intermediary effect test method, and analyzes the intermediary effect of energy consumption structure in each region in combination with the characteristics of the East, middle and west regions of China. It is found that the energy consumption structure has a significant intermediary effect, and 37.59% of the inhibition effect of technological innovation on carbon intensity is achieved by optimizing the energy consumption structure. Based on EKC hypothesis and empirical results, it is found that China's current economic level has not reached the “turning point”, and there is a "green paradox" of environmental regulation. It is found that in the east of China, energy consumption structure plays a significant intermediary role, technological innovation has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon intensity, and the "inflection point" of the EKC hypothesis has reached in the economic level of the eastern region has no significant intermediate effect on the energy consumption structure of the central and western regions, and technological innovation cannot effectively inhibit local carbon emissions.