老龄化的快速发展对我国宏观经济的影响

Effects of the Rapid Development of Aging Population on the Macro Economy of China

摘要: 我国自2000年就已经进入老龄化社会，随着近年来人口出生率的下降和预期寿命的提高，人口老龄化进程还将加速发展，进入深度老龄化社会只是时间问题。即使在实施全面开放二孩的人口政策背景下，我国出生人口数量的回暖也仅仅维持了两年，我国进入超少子化社会的趋势已经不可逆转。人口是社会发展的基础，人口老龄化必将对我国宏观经济的长期发展造成一定影响。文章分析了我国人口结构快速变化的原因，以及该变化对我国经济发展的长期影响。结果表明：(1) 生活观念、收入分配等社会经济因素已经取代计划生育政策成为抑制我国人口增长的主要原因；(2) 人口结构的改变和人口总量的减少将直接导致劳动人口和消费市场的收缩；(3) 人口老龄化会增加家庭和国家财政在养老和医疗支出方面的压力。总体来看，深度老龄化将对我国宏观经济的发展带来负面影响。文章认为，需要警惕人口快速下降和人口老龄化对未来我国宏观经济的不利影响，同时积极探索适合我国国情的应对方案。

Abstract: China has entered the aging society since 2000. With the decline of the birth rate and the increase of life expectancy, the aging of population will accelerate. Even in the context of the implementation of a fully open two-child population policy, the recovery of the births rate in China has only been maintained for two years, and trend of entering a super-minority society in China has been irreversible. Population is the foundation of development, the aging of population will definitely affect the long-term development of macro economy in China. The paper analyzes the reasons for the rapid changes in demographic structure and the long-term effects of this change on the eco-nomic development of China. The results show that: (1) Social and economic factors such as life concept and income distribution have replaced family planning policies as the main reason to curb population growth in China; (2) Changes in the demographic structure and reduction of the total population will directly lead to the shrinkage of labor force and consumer markets; (3) The aging population will increase pressure on households and the state’s finances in terms of pension and medical expenditures. In general, deep aging of population has a negative impact on the macroe-conomic development of China. This paper argues that it is necessary to be alert to the adverse ef-fects of the rapid decline in the birth population and the aging of population on macro economy of China in the future, at the same time, our government needs to explore solutions, which suit our national conditions.