新形势下数学方法在人口增长模型中的应用

Application of Mathematical Method in Population Growth Model under New Situation

摘要: 新形势下，人口的规模发生了新的变化，经典的人口预测模型的局限性越来越大，为此我们用数学方法将传统的预测模型加以改进，从而更能契合当今人口增长形势。首先，我们考虑到二孩政策的开放对人口变动的影响，进一步将logistic人口模型加以改进。然后，我们又考虑到经济因素对人口变动的影响，进一步再将logistic人口模型加以改进。最后，我们综合考虑两个因素对人口变动的影响，列出了对应的微分方程组，建立了人口预测模型。

Abstract: Under the new situation, the size of the population has undergone new changes, and the limitations of the classic population forecasting model are becoming greater and greater. For this reason, we use mathematical methods to improve the traditional forecasting model to better fit the current population growth situation. First, we consider the impact of the opening of the second child policy on population changes, and further improve the logistic population model. Then, we also consider the impact of economic factors on population changes, and further improve the logistic population model. Finally, we comprehensively consider the impact of two factors on population changes, list the corresponding differential equations, and establish a population prediction model.