广西夏季极端气候事件时空分布特征研究

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Summer Extreme Climate Events in Guangxi Region

摘要: 本文使用国家气候中心CN05.1数据集温度和降水月平均和日平均资料，采用百分位阈值法和线性趋势估计分析了1961~2012年夏季广西极端高温和极端降水的时空分布特征。并参照地形将广西划分为南部、中部和北部三个子区域。结果表明：夏季极端高温气候事件在52年中在广西南部、中部和北部都有一致增加的趋势；夏季极端高温事件合成平均空间分布在广西南部和中部子区域都是从中心向两边逐渐降低，而北部子区域是从南向北逐渐降低；夏季极端降水气候事件在52年中广西南部和北部子区域都有微弱增加的趋势，但中部子区域呈现微弱下降的趋势；夏季极端降水合成平均空间分布呈现在广西南部子区域为沿海往北逐渐减少，中部和南部子区域从中心极大值区向周围边逐渐减少的特征。

Abstract: In this paper, with the CN05.1 dataset temperature and precipitation monthly average and daily average data, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extremely high temperature and extreme precipitation in Guangxi during the summer of 1961-2012 were analyzed by using the percentile threshold method and linear trend estimation. With reference to the terrain, Guangxi was divided into three sub-regions, which were the south region, the middle region and the north region. The results showed: the extremely high-temperature climate events in summer had a consistent increase trend in the southwestern, central and northern parts of Guangxi in the past 52 years; the average spatial distribution of the extremely high-temperature events in summer was gradually decreasing from the center to the two sides in the southwestern and central sub-regions, but the northern sub-region gradually decreased from south to north. The summer extreme precipitation climate events had a slight increase trend in the southern and the northern sub-region part of Guangxi in the 52 years, but the central sub-region showed a slight decline trend; the average spatial distribution of summer extreme precipitation synthesis appeared in the southern sub-region part of Guangxi which gradually decreased from the coastal to the north. The feature of the central and southern sub-regions was gradually reduced from the central maximum region to the surrounding edge.