现阶段我国外汇储备规模适度状况的多视角估测与比较

The Estimation & Comparison of Moderation of China’s Forex Reserve Scale at Present Phase from Various Perspectives

摘要: 运用IMF定量指标、综合测量标准、以及经典的成本收益分析法阿格沃尔模型估测进入新世纪后我国外汇储备规模的适度状况，结果显示三种方法的结论在多数年份是一致的，体现了外汇储备的经济共性。最后，本文借鉴国外货币管理当局的经验，提出改善中国外汇储备规模的合理化建议。

Abstract: By means of IMF’s quantitative index, comprehensive metrical standard, and classical Cost-benefit approach such as Argarwal model, this dissertation estimates the appropriateness of National Forex Reserve after neo-millennium, and the result indicates the conclusions of the three methods are in agreement, which epitomizes the economic commonness of Forex reserve. By making reference to foreign Monetary Authority experiences, the paper suggests several proposals for optimizing the scale of Chinese Forex reserve at last.