我国汇率与房地产价格的波动关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Real Estate Price in China

摘要: 本文通过分析国内现行状态下房地产市场状况，结合国内的汇率政策和汇率改革，利用数理统计的相关性分析和回归性分析，得出了我国房地产价格和人民币汇率有一定的相关性。结合历史经验，总结出了三条汇率影响房地产价格的作用渠道，分别是货币供给渠道、物价水平渠道和流动性水平渠道，三条渠道中汇率通过不同的作用方式最终作用于房地产价格。通过对国际经验的分析，发现房地产价格具有较强的刚性，货币贬值只会促进房地产价格加速下行，对房地产价格的上升趋势并没有很大影响。通过全文的分析得出人民币汇率和房地产价格具有正相关关系的结论，并得出了回归方程。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the current situation of the real estate market in China, combines the domestic exchange rate policy and the exchange rate reform, and uses the correlation analysis and regression analysis of Mathematical Statistics. It is concluded that there is a certain correlation between the real estate price and the exchange rate of RMB. Based on historical experience, this paper sums up three channels which exchange rates affect real estate prices, namely, money supply channel, price level channel and liquidity level channel. In the three channels, the exchange rate affects the real estate price in different ways. Through the analysis of international experience, it is found that the real estate price has strong rigidity; currency depreciation will only accelerate the downward trend of the real estate price, and has no great influence on the upward trend. Through the analysis of the whole paper, it is concluded that the RMB exchange rate is positively correlated with the real estate price, and the regression equation is obtained.