福建省2030年碳达峰前二氧化碳排放趋势研究——基于GM(1,1)、GM(2,1)与GM(1,1)邓聚龙灰色预测模型

Study of CO2 Emission Trends in Fujian Province before Carbon Peaking in 2030—Based on GM(1,1), GM(2,1) and GM(1,1) Deng Jurong Grey Forecast Models

摘要: 本文采用GM(1,1)、GM(2,1)和GM(1,1)邓聚龙灰色预测模型，选取了福建省1995年至2019年的二氧化碳排放量，用以拟合分析我国提出在2030年达到碳达峰前的福建省二氧化碳排放量数据增长趋势，实证分析三种灰色预测模型之间的差异性与一致性，得出GM(2,1)与GM(1,1)邓聚龙模型此次拟合效果具有一致性，均可以采用。并且二氧化碳排放预测结果表明：福建省从2019年开始至2030年，碳排放量呈现一种加速上升的趋势。本文也以此提出我国要在2060年达到碳中和目标的一些举措。

Abstract: This paper, the GM(1,1), GM(2,1) and GM(1,1) Deng Jurong gray prediction models are used to fit the CO2 emissions in Fujian Province from 1995 to 2019 to analyze the growth trend of CO2 emissions data in Fujian Province before China proposes to reach the carbon peak in 2030, and the differences and consistency between the three gray prediction models are empirically analyzed, and it is concluded that the GM(2,1) and GM(1,1) Deng Jurong models are consistent and can be used, and the prediction results of CO2 emissions show that the carbon emissions in Fujian Province will show an accelerated upward trend from 2019 to 2030. This paper also uses this to propose some initiatives for China to reach the carbon neutrality target in 2060.