新能源汽车补贴对空气质量的影响——以广东省为例

The Influence of Subsidy Policy on Air Quality of New Energy Vehicles—A Case Study of Guangdong Province

摘要: 新能源汽车补贴政策是我国为了节能减排与产业升级所实施的重要政策。近年大幅补贴退坡带来环境隐患。本文使用政策实施程度不同的城市的空气质量数据进行因果检验，识别补贴政策对环境的改善，从而给出政策建议。结果表明，2017年的新能源汽车补贴退坡20%的政策对于空气质量影响在近期不明确；在滞后几期有负面作用，滞后三期时，NO2在5%置信区间上显著上升，在滞后四期时AQI指数在5%置信区间显著上升0.112%。CO和O3均在10%水平显著上升，分别为0.062%和0.197%。研究表明，新能源汽车补贴退坡对空气质量存在一定影响，是制定政策时需要考虑的一项因素。

Abstract: The subsidy policy of new energy vehicles is an important policy for energy conservation, emission reduction and industrial upgrading in China. In recent years, the steep decline of subsidies has brought environmental risks. In this paper, the air quality data of cities with different degrees of policy implementation are used for causal test to identify the environmental improvement of subsidy policies, so as to give policy suggestions. The results show that in 2017, the policy of sub-sidies for new energy vehicles to reverse 20% of the impact on air quality in the near future is not clear; there was a negative effect in several lagging periods. In the third lagging period, NO2 signif-icantly increased in the 5% confidence interval, and in the fourth lagging period, AQI significantly increased in the 5% confidence interval by 0.112%. CO and O3 both rose significantly at the 10% level, 0.062% and 0.197% respectively. Research shows that the decline of subsidies for new en-ergy vehicles has a certain impact on air quality, which is a factor to be considered when formu-lating policies.