基于时间序列的天津市房价的建模与预测

Modeling and Forecasting of Housing Prices in Tianjin Based on Time Series

摘要: 我国房地产近几年发展势头强盛，虽然经历了2020年的新冠疫情，但全国房价从整体上来讲还是呈现出增长的趋势。可见，国内居民对住房需求势头不减。本文利用了2012年1月到2021年1月近十年的月度房价数据，采用时间序列模型来对天津市的房价未来一段时间的价格指数进行了预测，结果显示在未来一段时间内天津市的房地产市场价格将保持一种下降的趋势，且房地产在短时间内回暖的可能性较小。

Abstract: China’s real estate industry has enjoyed a strong development momentum in recent years. Despite the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the national housing price has shown an overall trend of growth. Visible, domestic residents for housing demand momentum is not reduced. In this paper, using the in January 2012 to January 2021, after nearly a decade of monthly house price data, by using the time series model to Tianjin price index of house prices in the future for a period of time, the results show that in the future, Tianjin real estate market prices over a period of time will maintain a downward trend, and the real estate is less likely to recover in a short time.