新疆阿勒泰冬季暴雪时空分布特征及重现期分析

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Heavy Snowsrorm and Reproducibility Analysis in Altay Xinjiang

摘要: 基于1980~2020年冬季阿勒泰地区7个国家基本气象站的逐日降水观测资料，运用统计分析、耿贝尔极值I型分布法，分析了阿勒泰地区冬季暴雪的变化特征和不同重现期下降水极值的分布情况，结果表明：1) 阿勒泰地区暴雪日数呈波动式阶段性变化，具有明显的年代际变化特征：从20世纪80年代开始至21世纪10年代，暴雪日数呈现增多趋势，各县市均表现为较为一致时间段的特性；此后至今，呈现东北部暴雪日数明显下降、而西南部却出现增多的态势。2) 暴雪日数由东北向西南逐渐减少，富蕴县发生暴雪的次数最多。3) 在不同重现期各站的暴雪日最大降水量相差较大，大值区位于东部。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation observation data at 7 meteorological stations in Altay from 1980 to 2020, the variation characteristics of Heavy snowstorm days and the extreme distribution of precipitation of different return periods were analyzed by using statistical method and the Gumbel extreme value I distribution method. The results showed that: 1) The heavy snowstorm days fluctuated periodically and had obvious interdecadal variable characteristics, and shows an increasing trend from the 1980s to the 1910s. All counties ware characterized by relatively consistent time periods; since then, the heavy snowstorm days in the northeast decreased significantly, while the southwest increased. 2) The Heavy snowstorm days decreased gradually from northeast to southwest area in Altay and most occured in Fuyun. 3) In different return periods, annual maximum daily snow precipitation had greater spatial differences, The high value region is located in the east.