基于灰色马尔科夫模型贵州省水果产量预测方法

Prediction Method of Fruit Yield in Guizhou Province Based on Grey Markov Model

摘要: 水果在人们的膳食中占据了很重要的地位,与人们的身体健康有着千丝万缕的关系，它的营养价值十分丰富，随着国内发展越来越好，家庭对水果的需求也在逐渐增加。贵州省水果产量会受到气候、政策、种植方式、储存方式等等方面的因素的影响，使得产量会具有极强的波动性和随机性。在本文中对比了灰色系统模型和灰色马尔科夫模型对产量预测的结果，发现灰色马尔科夫模型对水果产量预测会更加精准。本文将选取贵州省2004年到2019年的水果产量数据(数据来源：贵州省2020年统计年鉴)进行分析研究。

Abstract: Fruits occupy a very important position in people’s diet and are inextricably related to people’s health. It is very rich in nutritional value, and with the development getting better and better in China, the demand for fruits by families is gradually increasing. Fruit production in Guizhou province can be affected by factors such as climate, policies, planting methods, storage methods, etc., making the output extremely volatile and random. In this paper, we compare the results of the grey system model and grey Markov model for yield prediction, and find that the grey Markov model is more accurate for fruit yield prediction. In this paper, fruit yield data which is from 2004 to 2019 in Guizhou province (data source: Statistical Yearbook of Guizhou Province in 2020) will be selected for analysis and research.