上海市城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支现状分析

Analysis on the Current Status of Income and Expenditure of the Basic Pension Insurance Fund for Urban Employees in Shanghai

摘要: 随着现代社会经济的迅速发展和人们生活质量的提高，人口平均预期寿命大幅增长，人口老龄化的问题越来越严峻。以上海市城镇职工为调查对象，使用EVIEWS软件分析上海城市城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收支随时间的变化趋势。通过建立回归模型预测其发展趋势，为现有问题提供合理的解决方案与对策。结果表明，尽管上海市城镇职工基本养老保险基金的收入每一年都在增加，但是在可预见的未来，支出将大于收入，差距将逐年扩大。同时，上海很可能面临严重的基金支付风险，这将威胁上海城镇职工基本养老保险基金的健康持续发展。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the modern social economy and the improvement of people’s quality of life, the average expectancy of life of the population has increased substantially, and the problem of population aging has become more and more serious. Taking urban employees in Shanghai as the survey objects, using EVIEWS software to analyze the trend of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Shanghai over time. By establishing a regression model to predict its development trend, it provides reasonable solutions and countermeasures for the existing problems. The results show that although the income of the basic pension insurance fund for urban employees in Shanghai is increasing every year, in the foreseeable future, the expenditure will exceed the income, and the gap between them will widen year by year. At the same time, Shanghai is likely to face serious fund payment risks, which will threaten the healthy and sustainable development of Shanghai’s basic pension insurance fund for urban employees.