梅州市暴雨预测与洪涝风险评价

Rainstorm and Flood Risk Assessment in Meizhou City

摘要: 今年七月底，台风“烟花”从我国东南沿海登陆，河南连续强降雨成灾，城市雨涝问题再次显现。梅州地处东南临海，地貌类型多样。本文以研究区某水文站2000年至2020年的降水观测资料，结合水文统计学P-III型曲线预测研究区百年一遇的大暴雨降水量，以百年一遇大暴雨为情景，基于ArcGIS平台，模拟研究区在暴雨情景下的雨涝风险，分析雨涝风险区域水文、气象特征。

Abstract: At the end of July this year, the typhoon “Yanhua” landed from the southeast coast in China. Continuous heavy rainfall in Henan caused disasters, and the problem of urban rain and waterlogging appeared again. Meizhou is located in the southeast facing the sea, with various types of landforms. This paper uses the precipitation observation data of a hydrological station in the study area from 2000 to 2020, combined with the P-III curve of hydrological statistics, to predict the precipitation of the once-in-a-hundred-year heavy rain in the study area. Taking a rainstorm once in 100 years as a scenario, the risk of rain and waterlogging in the study area is simulated based on the ArcGIS platform, and the hydrometeorological characteristics of the rain-waterlogging risk area are analyzed.