失能老人长期护理服务需求及影响因素研究——基于Logistic回归模式

Research on Long-Term Nursing Service Demands and Influencing Factors of the Disabled Elderly—Based on Logistic Regression Model

摘要: 目前中国人口结构模式不断变化，高龄老人、失能老人的数量规模会呈快速增长的趋势，我国长期护理服务体系将面临严峻挑战。为构建和完善失能老人长期护理服务体系，本研究对长护服务影响因素进行分析，以便于为服务体系的构建提供依据。本文基于CLHLS2018年数据，应用安德森模型与Multinomial logistic回归模式剖析失能老人护理需求影响因素。结果表明年龄、学历、地区、婚姻、主要照料者、家庭年收入、子女数量、家庭经济来源、失能等级与期望居住方式等因素对护理需求有显著影响。我们应提升失能老人护理服务环境，科学划分城乡护理等级，按需供给并且加快“智能一体化”护理服务体系的构建，充分发挥家庭、社区–居家和机构三种护理主体的力量，完善护理需求评估体系。

Abstract: At present, China’s population structure is in a rapid transformation stage. The number of elderly and disabled elderly will show a rapid growth trend. China’s long-term nursing service system will face rigorous challenges. In order to construct and improve the long-term care service system for the disabled elderly, this study analyzes the factors affecting the long-term care service for the disabled elderly, to provide a basis for the construction of the long-term care service system. Based on the 2018 data from the CLHLS, this paper analyzes the factors influencing the need for care for the elderly with inaction using the Andersen model and the Multinomial logistic regression model. The conclusion shows that factors such as age, education, region, marriage, main caregiver, annual family income, number of children, family source of income, level of disability, and expected residence have a significant effect on nursing needs. We should improve the nursing service environment for disabled elderly, scientifically divide the urban and rural nursing level, provide on-demand and accelerate the construction of the "intelligent integrated" nursing service system. Give full play to the strength of the three nursing subjects of family, community-home and institution and improve the nursing needs assessment system.