贵州省2015~2019年空气质量时空变化特征及其影响因素分析

Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Air Quality in Guizhou Province from 2015 to 2019

摘要: 空气质量与人们生产、生活以及人体健康息息相关，在社会经济和城镇化快速发展时期，空气质量更容易受到影响，因此研究空气质量的时空变化及其影响因素具有重要的社会价值和理论价值。以贵州省2015~2019年空气质量指数以及主要污染物数据对其空气质量时序变化进行分析，并结合空间插值、地理探测器及灰色关联模型对其空间分异和驱动因素进行了探究。结果表明：1) 贵州省2015~2019年空气质量整体较好，且整体呈向好的方向发展。空气质量月际变化特征基本与干湿季相吻合，主要污染物浓度除O₃外，基本呈下降趋势。2) 贵州省2015~2019年AQI值有明显的空间格局变化，2015~2017年呈现出西北高，东南低的空间格局，2018~2019年整体呈现出东北高，东南低的空间格局。3) 地理探测器和灰色关联模型均表明气象因子是影响贵州省2015~2019年空气质量的主要影响因子，而社会经济是次要影响因子，且因子交互协同作用中气象因子间两两协同作用更加显著。4) 贵州省2015~2019年空气质量受气象因素和社会经济因素共同影响，我们推测空气污染事件多发生在特殊天气条件下以及有利于污染物形成的天气条件下。研究结果将为贵州省空气质量防治及其空气质量的提升提供一定的科学依据。

Abstract: Air quality is closely related to people’s production, life and human health. In the period of rapid development of social economy and urbanization, air quality is more susceptible to impact. Therefore, studying the spatio-temporal changes of air quality and its influencing factors has important social and theoretical value. Based on the air quality index and main pollutant data of Guizhou Province from 2015 to 2019, the temporal changes of air quality were analyzed, and the spatial differentiation and driving factors were explored by combining spatial interpolation, geographic detector and grey correlation model. The results showed that: 1) The air quality in Guizhou Province was generally good from 2015 to 2019, and developed in a good direction as a whole. The monthly variation characteristics of air quality are basically consistent with the dry and wet seasons. Except for the concentration of main pollutant O₃, it basically shows a downward trend. 2) The AQI value of Guizhou Province showed obvious spatial pattern changes from 2015 to 2019. From 2015 to 2017, it showed a spatial pattern of high value in northwest and low value in southeast, and from 2018 to 2019, it showed a spatial pattern of high value in northeast and low value in southwest. 3) Both geographical detector and grey correlation model showed that meteorological factors were the main influencing factor of air quality in Guizhou Province from 2015 to 2019, while social economy was the secondary influencing factor. Moreover, the synergistic effect between meteorological factors was more significant. 4) Air quality in Guizhou Province from 2015 to 2019 was affected by meteorological factors and social and economic factors. We speculated that air pollution events mostly occurred under special weather conditions and favorable weather conditions for the formation of pollutants. The results will provide a scientific basis for air quality control and improvement in Guizhou Province.