新冠肺炎疫情对中国旅游业的冲击影响研究——基于修正的TGARCH-M模型

Study on the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on Chinese Tourism Industry

摘要: 新冠肺炎疫情已给我国的旅游业带来了巨大冲击。文章基于2014年1月2日到2021年1月5日共1709个申万旅游综合指数的日度数据，分析了近7年我国旅游业的发展情况。并通过对疫情期间旅游业的综合指数生成过程中融入波动冲击量构建了高拟合程度的服从t分布状态的TGARCH-M模型，研究了新冠肺炎疫情给我国旅游业带来的额外冲击。实证结果表明：我国近7年的旅游业在市场上的波动表现出正反馈效应，正向冲击与负向冲击相比没表现出明显的“杠杆”效应；旅游业在疫情发生前后呈现出不同程度的波动性，疫情发生后旅游业指数的波动冲击额外增加了2.08 × 10−5个单位；但由于额外增加波动冲击值较小，说明疫情对我国旅游业带来的冲击性并不是那么严重，也表明疫情过后旅游业能够以较快的速度恢复。

Abstract: The COVID-19 epidemic has brought a great impact on China’s tourism industry. This paper analyzes the development of China’s tourism industry in the past seven years based on the daily data of 1,709 Shenwan Tourism Composite Index from January 2, 2014 to January 5, 2021. In addition, the TGARCH-M model with high fitting degree following the T-distribution state was constructed by integrating the fluctuating impact amount into the comprehensive index generation process of tourism industry during the epidemic period, and the additional impact of COVID-19 epidemic on China’s tourism industry was studied. The empirical results show that the fluctuation of China’s tourism industry in the market in the recent seven years shows a positive feedback effect, and the positive impact has no obvious “leverage” effect compared with the negative impact. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the Fluctuating impact of tourism index increased by 2.08 × 10−5 units. Due to the small impact value of additional fluctuations, it indicates that the impact of the epidemic on China's tourism industry is not so serious, and it also indicates that the tourism industry can recover at a fast speed after the epidemic.