河南省卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究

Research on the Prediction and Influencing Factors of Henan Province’s Total Health Expenditure

摘要: 目的：预测河南省2019~2025七年的卫生总费用，并对影响卫生总费用的因素进行分析，为河南省卫生事业发展提供建议。方法：采用EXCEL建立数据库，构建灰色GM(1,1)模型对2019~2025年河南省卫生总费用及筹资结构进行预测，并使用灰色关联法对影响卫生总费用的相关因素进行分析。结果：2019~2025年河南省卫生总费用将持续增长，政府和个人卫生费用支出占卫生总费用比重呈下降趋势，社会卫生支出费用占比将逐渐上升。个人卫生费用支出与卫生总费用的灰色关联度最强，其次是人均GDP，老龄化状况和年末人口总数与卫生总费用的灰色关联度较弱。结论：优化卫生总费用筹资结构，合理降低个人卫生费用支出占卫生总费用比重，体现卫生事业的公益性，正确处理卫生费用增长与发展间关系，促进卫生政策可持续发展。

Abstract: Objective: To predict the total health expenditure in Henan Province from 2019 to 2025, analyze the factors affecting the total health expenditure, and provide suggestions for the development of health services in Henan Province. Methods: Using EXCEL to establish a database, construct a gray model to predict the total health expenditure and financing structure of Henan Province from 2019 to 2025, and using the gray correlation method to analyze the relevant factors affecting the total health expenditure. Results: The total health expenditure in Henan Province will continue to increase from 2019 to 2025. The proportion of government and personal health expenditures in the total health expenditure will show a downward trend, and the proportion of social health expenditure will gradually increase. The gray correlation between personal health expenditure and total health expenditure is the strongest, followed by GDP per capita, and the gray correlation between aging status and the total population at the end of the year and total health expenditure is weak. Conclusions: We optimize the financing structure of total health expenditure, reasonably reduce the proportion of personal health expenditure in total health expenditure, reflect the public welfare of health services, correctly handle the relationship between health expenditure growth and development, and promote the sustainable development of health policies.