基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的上海市老年护理院床位规模预测
Prediction of Bed Size in Shanghai Elderly Nursing Homes Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model
摘要: 合理分析预测上海市老年护理院床位规模发展情况，为上海老年医疗护理事业提供建议，同时可为其他城市老年护理院的发展具有参考意义。结果发现根据指标所构建的灰色GM(1,1)模型精准度为95.57%，表明拟合度良好，适合本次外推预测，未来五年里上海市老年护理院床位数均呈上升趋势。加强政府的主导作用，多方联动，整合各部门资源，提升老年护理服务体系的运作效率，逐步提高上海市老年群体整体健康水平及生活质量。
Abstract:
Reasonable analysis and prediction of the development of the bed scale of elderly nursing homes in Shanghai can provide suggestions for the medical and nursing cause of the elderly in Shanghai, and at the same time, it can be a reference for the development of elderly nursing homes in other cities. The results found that the accuracy of the gray GM(1,1) model constructed based on the indicators was 95.57%, indicating a good fit and suitable for this extrapolation prediction. In the next five years, the number of beds in Shanghai elderly nursing homes will be on the rise. We should strengthen the leading role of the government, multi-party linkages, integrate resources from various departments, improve the operational efficiency of the elderly care service system, and gradually improve the overall health and life of the elderly in Shanghai quality.
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