入世以来我国私家车消费变化特征及影响因素研究

Study on Change Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China’s Private Car Consumption since China’s Entry into WTO

摘要: 私家车消费是我国COVID-19疫情后推动汽车产业高质量发展并带动经济复苏的重要领域，深入分析入世以来我国私家车消费时空变化特征及影响因素，对改善我国私家车消费下滑态势有重要决策参考价值。本文采用空间面板杜宾误差模型实证分析了2002~2019年产业政策、居民收入及使用成本对省际私家车市场的影响。研究表明：私家车销量占国内汽车销量比重在2003年首次突破50%并在2015年达到峰值89.47%，到2019年下降至85.07%；省际私家车市场具有显著为负的空间自相关特征，邻近省份私家车销量的误差冲击对本省私家车销量产生显著为正的空间溢出效应；不同产业政策对私家车消费的影响差异明显，汽车消费激励政策对私家车消费具有显著促进效应，限牌限购政策则具有显著抑制效应；居民消费水平、金融业、汽车产量等因素对私家车消费具有显著促进效应，使用成本、城市化等因素则具有显著抑制效应。总体上看，影响我国私家车消费的因素具有复杂性，最后在实证分析结果上文章提出了促进我国私家车消费的建议。

Abstract: Consumption of private car is an important area to promote the high-quality development of auto industry and drive economic recovery after the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China’s private car consumption has important decision-making reference value for improving downward trend of China’s private car consumption. The result shows that the proportion of private car sales in domestic car sales exceeded 50% for the first time in 2003 and reached a peak of 89.47% in 2015, and dropped to 85.07% in 2019; The inter-provincial private car market has significant negative spatial autocorrelation characteristics, and the error shock of private car sales in neighboring provinces has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on private car sales in this province; The impact of different industrial policies on private car consumption is significantly different. The automobile consumption incentive policy has a significant promoting effect on private car consumption, while the license restriction and purchase restriction policy has a significant inhibitory effect; Residents' consumption level, financial industry, automobile production and other factors have a significant promoting effect on private car consumption, while factors such as use cost and urbanization have a significant inhibitory effect; On the whole, the factors affecting the consumption of private cars in China are complex. On the empirical analysis results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the consumption of private cars in China.