乌鲁木齐机场降雪强度的数值预报

Numerical Prediction of Snowfall Intensity at Urumqi Airport

摘要: 在中尺度数值预报模式WRF成功预报乌鲁木齐机场一场罕见的大暴雪天气的基础上，本文利用WRF模式内置的AFWA模块对此次大暴雪天气中对航班起降有重要影响的(以能见度表征的)降雪强度的预报结果进行了评估。结果表明WRF模式能比较准确的预报强降雪(能见度< 1000 m)的起止时间，但是不能预报由于小雪导致空气中湿度大而出现冻雾时能见度低于1000 m的情况。

Abstract: Based on the fact that the mesoscale WRF model successfully captured an unusual snowstorm event at Urumqi Airport, this paper evaluated the performance of WRF model with the built-in AFWA module in predicting snowfall intensity (represented by the visibility), which is very important to the takeoff and landing of flights. The results show that the WRF model can predict the starting and ending time of heavy snowfall (visibility < 1000 m) with rather surprising accuracy at Urumqi Airport, but it can not predict the low visibility (visibility < 1000 m) resulted by the freezing fog due to the increasing humidity following with the light snow.