基于组合模型的短期客运航班量预测方法研究

Research on Forecasting Method of Short-Term Passenger Number of Flights Based on Combination Model

摘要: 针对不同预测方法的优缺点，本文建立了一种基于回归模型和灰色模型的短期客运航班量组合预测算法，并选取实际执行航班量、预先飞行计划航班量、订票量及客座率等数据计算组合模型回归系数。研究表明，该组合算法预测结果具有较高的可靠性，可以满足预测需求，为短期航班量预测提供一种新思路，为运行单位基于民航运行信息管理系统开发短期客运航班量预测模块提供决策支持。

Abstract: According to the advantages and disadvantages of different forecasting methods, this paper establishes a combination prediction algorithm of short-term passenger flight volume based on regression model and grey model, and selects the data of actual flight volume, preplanned flight volume, reservation volume and passenger load factor to calculate the regression coefficient of the combination model. The research shows that the prediction result of the combined algorithm has high reliability and can meet the prediction demand, which provides a new idea for short-term flight volume prediction, and provides decision support for operating units to develop short-term passenger flight volume prediction module based on civil aviation operation information management system.