1981~2016年蒙古国气温变化特征研究

The Study on the Characteristics of Temperature Change in Mongolia from 1981 to 2016

摘要: 联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)第四次评估报告指出，1906~2005年全球平均气温上升0.74℃。IPCC第五次评估报告中指出，1880~2016年全球平均地表温度增加了约0.85℃。过去30年，全球地表持续升温，温度的上升幅度高于1850年以来的任何时期。蒙古–西伯利亚高压的变化对我国气候也有着一定程度的影响。蒙古国既是“一带一路”倡议“中蒙俄经济走廊”的重要组成部分，也是受全球气候变化影响显著的区域。本文下载了CRU再分析数据(Climatic Research Unit，简称CRU) 1981~2016年全球近地面2 m逐月平均气温数据，进行处理后采用线性回归分析和M-K检验法分析可以得出：1) 20世纪80年代以来蒙古国陆地气温变化速率平均为0.526℃/10a，呈极显著升高趋势(P < 0.01)，年平均气温增加了1.894℃。2) 20世纪80年代以来蒙古国陆地气温变化突变点为1988年。3) 蒙古国陆地超过83%的地区气温上升超过了1.5℃，蒙古国陆地超过88%的地区气温呈显著上升趋势。

Abstract: According to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average global temperature rose by 0.74˚C between 1906 and 2005. According to the fifth assess-ment report of the IPCC, the global average surface temperature increased by about 0.85˚C from 1880 to 2016. The earth’s surface has continued to warm over the past 30 years, with temperatures rising by more than at any time since 1850. Mongolia is not only an important part of the One Belt And One Road China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor, but also a region significantly affected by global climate change. The Mongolian-Siberian high also has a certain degree of influence on our climate. This article download the CRU reanalysis data (Climatic Research Unit, referred to as “CRU”) 1981~2016 world nearly 2 m monthly mean temperature data on the ground, after processed using linear regression analysis and M-K test were used to analyze the results: 1) since the 1980s, the average land temperature change rate in Mongolia was 0.526˚C/10a (P < 0.01), the annual average temperature increased by 1.894˚C. 2) The abrupt change point of land temperature in Mongolia since 1980s was 1988. 3) The temperature of more than 83% of the land areas in Mongolia increased by more than 1.5˚C, and the temperature of more than 88% of the land areas in Mongolia showed a significant increasing trend.