社会保险基金支出的影响因素研究——基于河南省数据分析

Research on Influencing Factors of Social In-surance Fund Expenditure—Based on Data Analysis of Henan Province

摘要: 近年来河南省社会保险基金支出呈逐年递增态势，甚至出现了“收不抵支”的情况，本文利用2010~2020年河南省统计年鉴相关数据建立多元线性回归模型进行实证分析，结果显示社会保险基金支出和生产总值呈显著正相关，即经济的增长会扩大社保基金的支出，社会保险基金支出和城镇化率呈显著负相关，即随城镇化率提高社保基金支出会有所下降。鉴于此提出实现社保支出水平的适度化及结构优化、完善当前的筹资体系及进一步推动新型城镇化建设进程的对策建议。

Abstract: In recent years, the expenditure of social insurance funds in Henan Province has been increasing year by year, and even the situation of “revenue cannot cover expenditure” has occurred. This paper uses the relevant data of the 2010~2020 Henan Provincial Statistical Yearbook to establish a multi-ple linear regression model for empirical analysis. The results show that there is a significant posi-tive correlation between social insurance fund expenditure and GDP, that is, economic growth will expand social security fund expenditure, and social security fund expenditure and urbanization rate are significantly negatively correlated, that is, with the increase of urbanization rate, social se-curity fund expenditure will decrease. In view of this, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to realize the moderate and structural optimization of social security expenditure, im-prove the current financing system and further promote the process of new-type urbanization.