基于多元回归模型的人均可支配收入预测分析

Per Capita Disposable Income Forecast Analysis Based on Multiple Regression Models

摘要: 人均可支配收入是反应居民生活水平的重要指标。为探究影响人均可支配收入的因素与人均可支配收入之间的关系，以安徽省各市的数据为例，建立多元线性回归模型，通过逐步回归方法确定重要影响因素，并得到预测值。结果显示，地区生产总值、社会消费品零售总额等对地区人均可支配收入有显著影响。利用逐步回归对变量选择后的模型预测值具有较高精度，这也证明了所提模型的有效性。

Abstract: Per capita disposable income is an important indicator of residents’ living standards. To explore the relationship between the factors affecting per capita disposable income and per capita disposable income, taking the data of cities in Anhui Province as an example, establish a multiple linear re-gression model, important influencing factors are identified by stepwise regression methods and get the predicted value. The results show that, Regional GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods have a significant impact on regional per capita disposable income. The model predicted val-ues after variable selection are highly accurate using stepwise regression, this also proves the effec-tiveness of the proposed model.