跨境资本流动对银行风险影响研究

Research on the Impact of Cross-Border Capital Flows on Bank Risk

摘要: 随着外部不确定性的增强，跨境资本流动对我国银行体系造成了广泛影响，具体影响渠道和防范措施亟待深入研究。本文基于近十年经济数据，实证检验跨境资本流动对我国银行风险的影响，并进一步探讨风险如何通过资产负债表渠道、汇率渠道和资产价格渠道进行传导，以及资产负债率、汇率、资产价格的调节作用。研究结果显示：跨境资本流出通过降低银行资产负债率减小银行风险，通过汇率渠道和资产价格渠道增加银行风险，总体而言将导致银行风险增加；汇率和股价上升将削弱跨境资本流入对银行风险的影响，房价上涨减轻了跨境资本流出造成的银行风险上升。基于上述结论，本文从完善银行风险监管体系、灵活运用审慎调节政策等角度提出政策建议。

Abstract: With the enhancement of external uncertainty, cross-border capital flows have had a wide impact on China’s banking system, and the specific impact channels and preventive measures need to be studied in depth. Based on the economic data of the past ten years, this paper empirically examines the impact of cross-border capital flows on the risk of banks in China, and further explores how the risk is transmitted through the balance sheet channel, exchange rate channel and asset price channel, as well as the adjustment effect of asset-liability ratio, exchange rate and asset price. The results of the study show that cross-border capital outflows reduce bank risk by reducing bank asset-liability ratios, and increase bank risk through exchange rate channels and asset price channels, which will lead to increased bank risk overall; Rising exchange rates and share prices will weaken the impact of cross-border capital inflows on bank risk, and rising house prices mitigate the rise in bank risk caused by cross-border capital outflows. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the perspective of improving the bank risk supervision system and flexibly applying prudential adjustment policies.