不同垂直带下冰川物质平衡对气候变化的响应

Response of Glacier Mass Balance to Climate Change under Different Vertical Belts

摘要: 冰川物质平衡是反映气候变化的一个重要指标，研究物质平衡有助于了解和预测气候变化。以乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川为例，利用Fisher最优分割法对1989~2018年期间的冰川物质平衡数据处理分析，来探究冰川物质平衡对于海拔的依赖性，随后研究了物质平衡对气候变化的响应。结果表明，在给定适当的分类数下，中低海拔区间高度(即3700~4100 m)的冰川物质平衡与气温及降水的相关性在2015年发生了突变，而在高海拔区间高度(即4100~4300 m)下的相关性并没有发生较大改变。且气温对冰川物质平衡的影响在中低海拔区间高度比在高海拔区间高度的影响要大一些，而降水量对冰川物质平衡在中低海拔区间高度的影响要比高海拔区间高度的影响小一些。

Abstract: Glacier mass balance is an important indicator of climate change. The study of glacier mass balance is helpful to understand and predict climate change. Taking glacier No. 1 of Urumqi River Source as an example, Fisher’s optimal segmentation method was used to process and analyze glacier mass balance data from 1989 to 2018 to explore the dependence of glacier mass balance on altitude, and then to study the response of glacier mass balance to climate change. The results show that, given an appropriate classification number, the correlation between glacier mass balance and temperature and precipitation at middle and low elevations (3700~4100 m) changed dramatically in 2015. However, the correlation did not change significantly at high altitude (4100~4300 m). The influence of temperature on the mass balance of the glacier is greater at the middle and low altitudes than at the high altitudes, while the influence of precipitation on the mass balance of the glacier is smaller at the middle and low altitudes than at the high altitudes.