社会保障缴费负担对微观主体的影响研究——以邢台市为例

Study on the Impact of Social Security Contribution Burden on Micro Subjects—A Case Study of Xingtai

摘要: 社会保障制度是维持社会和谐稳定的必要条件。目前我国的社会保障缴费率较高，在全球的众多经济体中排名靠前，较高的社会保障缴费率带来了一些负担。基于2010年~2020年的数据构建系统动力学模型，从企业和个人两个角度探明了社会保障缴费对微观主体的影响路径，并通过Vensim软件进行了模拟仿真。实证分析发现：出现突发公共卫生事件后，政府如果没有及时调整社会保障费率则会导致经济下行；出台适当的优化政策能够缓解较高社会保障费率带来的不良后果。基于研究结论，提出政府提高治理能力、出台优惠政策抓重点、完善社会保障体系三条建议。

Abstract: The social security system is necessary to maintain social harmony and stability. At present, China's social security contribution rate is high, ranking high among many economies in the world, and the higher social security contribution rates create some burden. A system dynamics model is constructed based on data from 2010~2020 to explore the impact path of social security contribu-tions on the regional economy from two perspectives: enterprises and individuals, and simulations are carried out by Vensim software. The empirical analysis finds that the government's failure to adjust social security rates in a timely manner after a public health emergency will lead to an economic downturn; the introduction of appropriate optimization policies can mitigate the negative consequences of higher social security rates. Based on the findings, three recommendations are proposed: the government improves governance capacity, introduces preferential policies to catch the focus, and improves the social security system.