社会信任、社交网络对女性生育意愿的影响——基于CGSS 2017数据的实证研究

The Influence of Social Trust and Social Network on Women’s Willingness to Give Birth—An Empirical Analysis Based on CGSS2017 Data

摘要: 多孩政策的开放为我国积极应对人口老龄化注入了动力，而“三孩政策”如何在“二孩政策”的基础上充分发挥其政策效果，研究女性的生育意愿影响因素对推动政策的进一步推行具有重要意义。本文运用2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的数据，采用logit回归和ologit模型，从社会信任和社交网络两个方面就个人社会关系对女性生育意愿的影响展开实证分析。研究结果表明，社会信任对于女性的生育意愿具有显著正向影响，而是否有较为广泛的社交网络对育龄女性的生育意愿没有显著影响。基于此，本文提出了在“三孩政策”的新政策背景下如何通过增加社会信任来提高女性的生育意愿的政策启示。

Abstract: The release of the multi-child policy has given impetus to China’s active response to population aging, but there is still a question about how the “three-child policy” can give full play to its effects on the basis of the “two-child policy”. Thus, it is important to study the factors influencing women’s willingness to give birth to promote the further implementation of the policy. This paper uses data from the 2017 China General Social Survey (CGSS), logit regression and ologit models to empirically analyze the influence of personal social relationships on women’s willingness to give birth in terms of social trust and social networks. The results show that social trust has a significant positive effect on women’s willingness to give birth, while the presence of a wider social network has no significant effect on women’s willingness to give birth at childbearing age. Based on this, this paper proposes policy implications on how to increase women’s willingness to give birth by increasing social trust in the new policy context of “three-child policy”.