长株潭都市区制造业空间时空格局演变特征

Evolution Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Manufacturing Industry in Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan Metropolitan Area

摘要: 以长株潭都市区为例，基于1978~2021年长株潭市区注册资本在50万人民币以上的制造业企业微观数据，运用核密度分析、莫兰指数、自然断点法等方法，以长株潭都市区为研究对象，对长株潭都市区制造业空间的时空特征、驱动因素进行综合系统的研究。研究结果表明：1978~2021年，由空间自相关分析：可知长株潭都市区的三类制造业总体呈现聚集趋势，劳动密集型与技术密集型制造业聚集趋势基本一致，呈现速率先减后增，资本密集型制造业则一直呈现增长趋势。由核密度分析可知：长株潭都市区制造业空间呈现一个“西北–东南”向扩张为主，由中心城市东西向扩散转变为向南部城市聚集。其中资本密集型制造业呈“大规模扩散、小范围聚集”的空间特征，劳动密集型制造业与资本密集型制造业空间变化较为相似，呈“中心城市扩散，南部小城市聚集”的空间特征，其总体呈现向南部沿交通轴发展的趋势，长株潭都市区制造业转移规模和范围都比较有限，进一步空间转移的潜力较大。

Abstract: Taking Changzhutan Metropolitan Area as an example, based on the micro data of manufacturing enterprises with a registered capital of more than RMB 500,000 in Changzhutan City from 1978 to 2021, using kernel density analysis, Moran index, natural breakpoint method and other methods, taking Changzhutan Metropolitan Area as the research object, the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of manufacturing space in Changzhutan Metropolitan Area were comprehensively and systematically studied. The results show that from 1978 to 2021, from spatial autocorrelation analysis, it can be seen that the three types of manufacturing industries in Changzhutan metropolitan area generally show a clustering trend, labor-intensive and technology-intensive manufacturing clustering trends are basically the same, the rate of presentation first decreases and then increases, and capital-intensive manufacturing industry has been showing a growth trend. From the analysis of nuclear density, it can be seen that the manufacturing space in Changzhutan metropolitan area shows a “northwest-southeast” expansion, and the east-west diffusion of the central city changes to the concentration of southern cities. Among them, the capital-intensive manufacturing industry shows the spatial characteristics of “large-scale diffusion and small-scale agglomeration”, the spatial changes of labor-intensive manufacturing and capital-intensive manufacturing are more similar, and the spatial characteristics of “central city diffusion and southern small city agglomeration” are presented, and its overall trend of development along the transportation axis in the south is relatively limited.