“双碳”目标下碳排放量变化趋势及影响因素分析——以长沙市碳排放为例

Analysis of Changing Trend and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission under the “Double Carbon” Target—A Case Study of Carbon Emission in Changsha City

摘要: 基于2001~2019年长沙市碳排放量数据和长沙市统计年鉴相关数据进行分析，采用折线图分析长沙市碳排放量的变化，用EKC曲线分析长沙市经济发展对碳排放量的影响，用Kaya恒等式分析长沙市碳排放量的驱动因素。结果显示：2001~2019年，长沙市实现经济迅速发展的同时，有效控制了碳排放量的增加，在2018年暂时达到了碳达峰目标中的碳排放强度条件；根据EKC曲线模型估计，长沙市在2014年至2015年期间实现碳达峰，但是估计存在误差，实际碳排放量并没有达峰；基于Kaya恒等式分析可得，长沙市能源结构的调整是过去长沙市碳排放量下降的主要原因，要实现“双碳”目标，必须继续调整优化能源结构，同时大力推广应用节能减排技术。

Abstract: Based on the data on carbon emissions of Changsha City from 2001 to 2019 and the relevant data from the statistical yearbook of Changsha City, this paper analyzes the change in carbon emissions of Changsha City by using the broken line chart, analyzes the impact of economic development of Changsha City on carbon emissions by using the EKC curve, and analyzes the driving factors of carbon emissions of Changsha City by using the Kaya identity. The results show that from 2001 to 2019, while realizing rapid economic development, Changsha effectively controlled the increase of carbon emissions, and temporarily reached the carbon emission intensity condition of the target of carbon peak in 2018. According to the EKC curve model, it is estimated that Changsha City achieved the carbon peak from 2014 to 2015, but the error is large, and the actual carbon emissions did not reach the peak. Based on the analysis of Kaya identity, it can be concluded that the adjustment of energy structure in Changsha was the main reason for the decrease in carbon emission in the past. In order to achieve the goal of “double carbon”, it is necessary to continue to adjust and optimize the energy structure and vigorously promote the application of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies.