子女数量如何影响我国老年人养老方式的选择？——基于2018年中国健康养老追踪调查数据

How Does the Number of Children Affect the Choice of Pension Mode for the Elderly in China?—Based on Data from the 2018 China Health and Pension Tracking Survey

摘要: 探究老年人养老方式的选择是一个紧迫的而具有现实意义的难题。2021年国家推行“三胎”政策，提倡每个家庭可以生育三个子女。在此背景下，探究子女数量对我国老年人养老方式选择上有何影响这一问题，是积极老龄化的重要举措。通过对2018年中国健康养老追踪调查数据的实证分析，本文采用二项logistic模型的分析方法，来探寻子女数量对中国老年人养老方式选择上的影响机制。研究表明，在控制其他变量的前提下，子女数量与老年人养老方式选择存在显著性相关关系，并且每个家庭养育的后代越多，老年人更容易选择在家庭养老，当子女的数量为三个时，老年人最有可能选择家庭养老。

Abstract: It is an urgent and practical problem to explore the choice of ways for the elderly. In 2021, the country introduced the “three-child” policy, which advocates that each family can have three children. In this context, it is an important measure of positive aging to explore the influence of the number of children on the choice of pension mode for the elderly. Based on the empirical analysis of the data of China’s health care tracking survey in 2018, the binomial logistic model was adopted in this paper to explore the mechanism of the influence of the number of children on the choice of pension methods for the elderly in China. Studies show that, under the premise of controlling other variables, there is a significant correlation between the number of children and the elderly’s choice of pension mode, and the more offspring raised by each family, the easier the elderly choose family pension. When the number of children is three, the elderly are most likely to choose family pension.