新冠疫情对批发零售业的影响——基于股票视角

The Impact of COVID-19 on Wholesale and Retail—Based on a Stock Perspective

摘要: 为研究新冠疫情对批发零售业的影响，本文从网络舆情和股票角度出发，利用2017年1月至2022年7月股票数据，构建了新冠舆情指数和TVP-VAR模型，从不同提前期和不同时点探究了新冠疫情对批发零售业股票的影响。研究表明：1) 新冠疫情舆情指数变动对批发零售业股票波动存在长期影响；2) 批发零售业股票在新冠疫情爆发初期受波动较大，其中市盈率受负面影响最为严重；3) 新冠疫情舆情指数波动对批发零售业股票变动的影响具有异质性，不同指标在不同时间受冲击程度存在一定差异，基本与现实情况相符。据此，本文从网络舆情、批发零售业和股票角度提出建议，以应对新冠疫情对批发零售业股票市场带来的冲击，确保批发零售业平稳发展。

Abstract: In order to study the impact of COVID-19 on wholesale and retail, from the perspective of online public opinion and stocks, this paper uses the stock data from January 2017 to July 2022 to build the novel coronavirus public opinion index and TVP-VAR model, and explores the impact of COVID-19 on wholesale and retail stocks from different lead periods and different time points. The research shows that: 1) the fluctuation of public opinion index of the novel coronavirus epidemic has a long-term impact on the volatility of wholesale and retail stocks; 2) Wholesale and retail stocks fluctuated greatly in the early stage of the outbreak, and the price-earnings ratio suffered the most serious negative impact; 3) The impact of the fluctuation of public opinion index on the changes of wholesale and retail stocks is heterogeneous, and different indicators are affected differently at different times, which is basically consistent with the reality. In view of this, this paper puts forward suggestions from the perspectives of online public opinion, wholesale and retail and stocks, so as to cope with the impact of COVID-19 on the wholesale and retail stock markets and ensure the stable development of wholesale and retail.