一类具有从隐性染病者向显性染病者转化的COVID-19动力学模型
A Dynamics Model of COVID-19 with Transition from the Asymptomatic to the Symptomatic Infected Individuals
摘要: 本文依据COVID-19的传播规律建立了一类SEAICR传染病模型，计算了模型的控制再生数，证明了模型平衡点的存在性和无病平衡点的局部稳定性，并进行了敏感性分析和数值模拟。研究结果表明：降低隐性感染者向显性感染者的转化率，即尽早发现隐性感染者并对其进行及时的治疗，或者提高隐性感染者比例均可以更好地控制COVID-19的传播。
Abstract: According to the transmission mechanism of COVID-19, an SEAICR epidemic model is established, and the control reproduction number of the model is calculated. Then, the existence of the equilib-rium and the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium are proved. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations are performed. The results indicate that the transmission of COVID-19 can be better controlled by reducing the conversion rate of the asymptomatic infection to the symptomatic infection, that means quickly detection and timely treatment of the asymptomatic infection should be conducted, or increasing the proportion of the asymptomatic infection.
文章引用：郭德玉, 王晓静, 白玉珍, 李欣, 王丽娜, 李佳慧. 一类具有从隐性染病者向显性染病者转化的COVID-19动力学模型[J]. 应用数学进展, 2023, 12(5): 2457-2467. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2023.125248

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