“灵活”偏好、资产价格波动与最优货币政策调控模式

“Flexible” Preference, Asset Price Fluctuation and Optimal Monetary Policy Regulation Mode

摘要: 货币政策是否应该对资产价格波动作出反应一直是宏观经济领域研究的热点问题。本文尝试将中央银行“灵活”偏好函数引入资产价格调控模式，从“区域”偏好的新视角对该问题展开研究。基于构建动态经济系统得到货币政策调控的最优模式，并运用实时数据进行实证检验。结果表明，资产价格波动是中央银行的重要盯住目标，中央银行对其调控呈现逆周期模式。中央银行对资产价格波动的损失偏好具有显著的非对称性，相比资产价格上升，中央银行更加厌恶资产价格下跌带来的损失偏好。此外，中央银行损失偏好还呈现出“区域”偏好特征。

Abstract: Whether monetary policy should respond to asset price fluctuations has always been a research hotspot in the field of macro-economy. This paper attempts to study this issue from a new perspective of the central bank’s “zone” preference. The “flexible” preference function is introduced into the asset price regulation mode, and the optimal monetary policy regulation mode is obtained by building a dynamic economic system. Real-time data is used for empirical research. It is found that asset price volatility is an important target of the central bank, and the central bank has a significant counter-cyclical pattern in its regulation. The central bank’s loss preference function for asset price fluctuations has significant asymmetry. Compared with the increase in asset prices, the cen-tral bank is more disgusted with the loss preference caused by the decline of asset prices. In addition, the loss preference of the central bank also shows a “zone” preference feature. Compared with small fluctuations in asset prices, it pays more attention to large fluctuations in asset prices.