基于过度自信理论的建筑施工人员安全风险量化评价研究

Research on Quantification and Evaluation of Safety Risk of Construction Personnel Based on Overconfidence Theory

摘要: 为应用心理学过度自信理论实现建筑施工人员安全风险倾向的量化评价，采用信效度检验方法验证过度自信自编量表的有效性，由此构建过度自信心理评价体系，运用主成分分析–熵权法评估被试个体的过度自信水平，通过灰色关联分析–模糊综合评价分析不同施工群体过度自信的心理差异。结果表明，过度自信倾向随年龄增长表现出递增趋势，随文化程度增加呈递减趋势，随工龄增长呈U型走势。不同事故经历群体中，目睹过事故发生的人群过度自信倾向偏低，而不存在事故经历的人群过度自信倾向偏高。不同作业区域群体中，施工难度偏低的地面作业人群过度自信倾向偏高。研究通过有效构建、测试和评估建筑施工人员的过度自信水平，可从心理层面上实现对作业人员的安全隐患防控。

Abstract: To apply the overconfidence theory of psychology to realize the quantitative evaluation of the safety risk tendency of construction personnel, the reliability and validity test method is adopted to verify the validity of the self-prepared scale of overconfidence, and the psychological evaluation system of overconfidence is constructed. The principal component analysis-entropy weight method is used to evaluate the overconfidence level of individual subjects. Grey correlation analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were used to analyze the psychological differences in overconfidence among different construction groups. The results show that the tendency of overconfidence increases with the increase of age decreases with the increase in education, and presents a U-shaped trend with the increase in working ages. Among different accident experience groups, the overconfidence tendency of those who had witnessed an accident was lower, while the overconfidence tendency of those who had no accident experience was higher. Among the groups in different working areas, the ground workers with low construction difficulty tend to be more overconfident. Through effectively constructing, testing, and evaluating the overconfidence level of construction personnel, the study can realize the prevention and control of hidden safety risks of operators from the psychological level.