基于ARIMA模型的农产品销售问题研究

Research on Sales of Different Kinds of Agricultural Products Based on Arima Model

摘要: 本文主要用ARIMA模型研究农产品的销售问题。选取河南省2020-9到2022-12的农产品销售数据为研究样本，首先对所研究的十类农产品进行白噪声检验，分析数据的价值性并将有研究价值的数据筛选出来，之后通过求解参数，分别对苹果、罐头建立ARIMA(1,1,2)模型、ARIMA(1,1,4)模型，并通过标准化残差图、残差的AFC图、残差的Ljung-Box白噪声检验p值来验证模型的合理性，最后利用求解出的ARIMA模型预测未来半年河南省的农产品销售情况。

Abstract: This paper mainly uses ARIMA model to study the sales of agricultural products. The sales data of agricultural products in Henan Province from 2020-9 to 2022-12 are selected as research samples. Firstly, the white noise test is carried out on ten types of agricultural products studied, the value of the data is analyzed and the data with research value is screened out. Then, by solving the parame-ters, The ARIMA(1,1,2) model and ARIMA(1,1,4) model were established for apple and canned products respectively, and the rationality of the models was verified by the standardized residual diagram, residual AFC diagram and residual Ljung-Box white noise test p value. Finally, the solved ARIMA model was used to predict the sales of agricultural products in Henan Province in the next half year.