广州市生态系统服务价值与生态风险时空变化及相关性分析

Spatiotemporal Change and Correlation Analysis of Ecosystem Service Values and Ecological Risk in Guangzhou

摘要: 随着城市化进程的不断发展，过度地开采和资源的不合理利用导致生态环境不断恶化，加剧了生态系统服务功能的退化，生态风险不断攀升。鉴于近20年广州市经济增长突出，人地矛盾加剧，本文以遥感和地理信息系统技术为基础，基于双变量空间自相关模型，以2 km*2 km的评价单元格为基础，对2000年、2010年、2020年三期广州市的土地利用数据计算20年来广州市的生态系统服务价值、生态风险指数以及两者之间的相关性。2000年至2020年生态系统服务价值由249.32亿元降至224.16亿元，减少了10.09%，生态风险的面积20年来增加了14.77%，且生态风险指数上升的速度越来越快，研究表明广州市的生态质量持续下降且速率不断增长。

Abstract: With the continuous development of urbanization, excessive exploitation and irrational use of resources have led to the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, aggravated the degradation of ecosystem service functions, and escalated ecological risks. Considering the outstanding economic growth of Guangzhou in the past 20 years, the contradiction between people and land has intensified, based on remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technology, this paper calculates the value of ecosystem services, the ecological risk index and the correlation between them in Guangzhou over the past 20 years by using the land use data of Guangzhou in the three periods of 2000, 2010, and 2020, and based on the evaluation unit grid of 2 km*2 km. The value of ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020 decreased from 24.932 billion yuan to 22.416 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.09%, the area of ecological risk increased by 14.77% in 20 years, and the ecological risk index increased more and more rapidly, the study shows that the ecological quality of Guangzhou City continues to decline and the rate is increasing.