基于PVAR模型的智慧农业与农业经济增长的动态影响实证研究

Empirical Research on the Dynamic Impact of Smart Agriculture and Agricultural Economic Growth Based on PVAR Model

摘要: 发展现代智慧农业，助力农业高质量发展，带动农民增收、乡村振兴是农业现代化发展的趋势所在，推进农业现代化是实现高质量发展的必然要求。文章基于2010~2019年中国30个省(市)的面板数据对智慧农业发展水平进行综合评价，并运用面板向量自回归模型研究两者的动态发展关系，研究发现：1) 我国不同地区智慧农业发展水平综合得分呈东高西低分布态势。2) 在2010～2019年间，智慧农业发展水平总体呈缓慢上升趋势，不同地区间的上升幅度存在差异。3) 智慧农业与农业经济增长之间存在相互作用力，农业经济的稳定增长对智慧农业的发展起到了重要推进作用，智慧农业发展初期对农业经济的增长产生了负向影响，该影响随着时间推移会由负转正对农业经济增长产生不显著的正向效应。4) 农业经济增长对于智慧农业发展的贡献度在后期稳定在1.6%，优于智慧农业对农业经济增长的贡献度。

Abstract: The development of modern smart agriculture, boosting the high-quality development of agriculture, driving farmers to increase their income and revitalizing the countryside is where the trend of agricultural modernization lies, and the promotion of agricultural modernization is an inevitable requirement for achieving high-quality development. The article is based on the panel data of 30 provinces (cities) in China from 2010 to 2019 to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the level of development of smart agriculture, and the panel vector autoregressive model is used to study the dynamic development of the relationship between the two, and the study finds that 1) the comprehensive score of the level of development of smart agriculture in different regions of China shows an east-high and west-low distribution trend. 2) During the period from 2010 to 2019, the overall level of smart agriculture development showed a slow upward trend, and there were differences in the rise between different regions. 3) There is an interaction force between smart agriculture and agricultural economic growth, and the stable growth of the agricultural economy plays an important role in promoting the development of smart agriculture, and the early stage of the development of smart agriculture has a negative impact on the growth of the agricultural economy, and this impact will turn from negative to positive over time to produce a non-significant positive effect on the growth of the agricultural economy. 4) The contribution of agricultural economic growth to the development of smart agriculture is stabilized at 1.6% in the late stage, which is better than the contribution of smart agriculture to agricultural economic growth.