云南省16个州市降水量特征分布研究——基于克里格插值法

Study on the Characteristic Distribution of Precipitation in 16 Cities in Yunnan Province—Based on Kriging Interpolation Method

摘要: 云南省是我国山地灾害最为严重的区域之一，掌握该地区16个州市降水的变化规律是山地灾害成灾演化的关键控制因素。本文使用实验变差函数克里格插值法，拟合相适应的球状模型，并计算出每个各点周围降水数据的权重。将得到的权重与已知的降水数据相乘得到相应格点的降水量，并使用Matlab软件画出降水分布图，以此模拟出云南省16个州市的降水量的降水图。研究发现：月降水量多雨区主要分布在省内腹地，少雨区主要分布在省内西北部，从南向北逐渐减少。降水量的空间分布预测对于云南省区域水资源环境及气候变化研究展具有重要的意义。

Abstract: Yunnan Province is one of the regions with the most serious mountain disasters. The key control factor for the evolution of mountain disasters is to master the variation rule of precipitation in 16 cities and towns in this region. In this paper, the experimental variation function Kriging interpo-lation method is used to fit the suitable spherical model and calculate the weight of precipitation data around each point. The obtained weight is multiplied by the known precipitation data to the precipitation of the corresponding grid points, and the Matlab software is used to draw the pre-cipitation distribution map, so as to simulate the precipitation map of 16 cities in Yunnan Province. The results show that the areas with heavy monthly rainfall are mainly distributed in the hinter-land of the province, while the areas with little rainfall are mainly distributed in the northwest of the province, decreasing gradually from south to north. The prediction of the spatial distribution of precipitation is of great significance to the study of regional water resources environment and climate change in Yunnan Province.