宿迁市极端气候事件变化特征及其未来趋势预测

Variation Characteristics and Future Trend Prediction of Extreme Climate Events in Suqian

摘要: 文章基于宿迁市4个气象站点1961~2021年逐日降水量、平均气温、最高和最低气温数据，运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验法、RClimDex模型、小波分析和R/S分析法，分析了18个极端气温和降水指数的变化特征，并进行了趋势预测。结果表明：1) 极端高温和极端低温均呈增加趋势，气温日较差呈减小趋势；极端高温(低温)事件的频率和持续性呈上升(下降)趋势；2) 极端降水事件的强度和频率呈微弱的上升趋势，持续性呈微弱的下降趋势；3) 极端气温冷指数的升温趋势明显高于暖指数，而夜指数的升温幅度也超过昼指数；4) 从周期性来看，极端气温指数存在2~6 a的周期变化；极端降水指数存在2 a左右的周期变化；5) R/S分析表明，未来宿迁地区气候变暖的状态仍继续保持；极端降水指数增减趋势不一致；极端气温指数的平均循环长度多大于15 a，极端降水指数的循环长度多小于10 a。

Abstract: In this paper, based on daily precipitation, average temperature, and maximum and minimum temperature data of 4 meteorological stations in Suqian City from 1961 to 2021, linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test, RClimDex model, wavelet analysis, and R/S are used to analyze the variation characteristics and trend prediction of 18 extreme temperature and precipitation indexes. The results are as follows: 1) Both extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature showed an increasing trend, while the daily temperature range showed a decreasing trend; the frequency and sustainability of extreme high-temperature (low-temperature) events showed an increasing (decreasing) trend; 2) The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are marginally increasing, while their sustainability has decreased slightly; 3) The increase in temperature for the extreme temperature cold indexes is higher than that of the warm indexes, while the increase in temperature for the night indexes is higher than that of the day indexes; 4) From a periodic perspective, the extreme temperature indexes exhibit a periodic variation of 2~6 a, while the extreme precipitation indexes display a periodic variation of about 2 a; 5) The R/S analysis shows that the state of climate warming in Suqian area will continue to persist, the trends of future increase or decrease of extreme precipitation indexes are inconsistent, and the average cycle length of the extreme temperature indexes is mostly greater than 15 a, while the cycle length of the extreme precipitation indexes are mostly less than 10 a.