我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率——基于DEA模型和Malmquist指数的实证研究

Operational Efficiency of Basic Old-Age Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents in China—An Empirical Study Based on DEA Model and Malmquist Index

摘要: 城乡居民基本养老保险制度是我国社会保障体系的重要组成部分，其运行效率直接关系到老年群体所能接受到的福利待遇水平。本文基于2017~2021年相关数据以及2021年我国31个省市的面板数据为研究依据，运用DEAP2.1软件，构建DEA模型，将Malmquist指数与DEA方法相结合，探究出我国城乡居民基本养老保险投入与产出效率。发现2021年城乡居民基本养老保险运行中只有天津、上海2个省市实现了资源的优化配置，且多省资源没有得到合理的配置，省份之间差距明显；自2017年以来我国城乡居民基本养老保险的基金运行效率有些许下滑，主要受技术进步因素下滑的制约。从省份角度来看，近五年11个全要素生产率为正增长的省域，均受益于纯技术效率的贡献，全要素生产率为负增长的20个省域中，均受到技术进步的制约。

Abstract: The basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents is an important part of China’s social security system, and its operational efficiency is directly related to the level of welfare benefits that the elderly can receive. Based on the relevant data from 2017 to 2021 and the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China in 2021, this paper uses DEAP2.1 software to construct a DEA model, and combines the Malmquist index with the DEA method to explore the input and output efficiency of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents in China. It is found that in 2021, only two provinces and cities, Tianjin and Shanghai, have achieved the optimal allocation of resources in the operation of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, and the resources of many provinces have not been reasonably allocated, and the gap between provinces is obvious. Since 2017, the operation efficiency of China’s basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents has declined slightly, mainly due to the decline in technological progress. From the perspective of provinces, the 11 provinces with positive TFP growth in the past five years have all benefited from the contribution of pure technological efficiency, while the 20 provinces with negative TFP growth have been constrained by technological progress.