基于VAR模型的国内教育投入对旅游消费的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Domestic Education Input on Tourism Consumption Based on VAR Model

摘要: 教育经费的大量投入为人才培养提供了有力保障，人才队伍的建设是推动旅游高质量发展的关键。为了探究国内教育投入对旅游消费影响，本文基于1999年到2022年的时间序列数据构建向量自回归VAR模型，研究两者之间的动态关系。本文研究结论如下：1) 无论是从长期还是短期来看，教育经费投入都会对国内旅游消费起到正向影响作用；2) 教育经费投入对国内旅游消费的影响程度在长期发展中趋于稳定在20%左右，这说明约有20%的国内旅游消费变动可以由教育经费投入解释；3) 教育经费投入的增加会对国内旅游消费的增加产生较大程度的正向影响作用。最后基于研究结论为旅游发展与教育建设提供政策建议。

Abstract: A large amount of investment in education funds provides a strong guarantee for talent training, and the construction of talent team is the key to promote the high-quality development of tourism. In order to explore the impact of domestic education input on tourism consumption, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive VAR model based on the original time series data from 1999 to 2022 to study the dynamic relationship between the two. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, whether in the long or short term, the investment of education funds has a positive effect on domestic tourism consumption; second, the degree of influence of education expenditure on domestic tourism consumption tends to be stable at about 20% in the long run, which indicates that about 20% of the change of domestic tourism consumption can be explained by education expenditure; third, the increase of education funds will have a positive impact on the increase of domestic tourism consumption to a greater extent. Finally, based on the research conclusions, it provides policy suggestions for tourism development and education construction.