基于文本挖掘的代餐产品消费预测研究

Research on Consumption Prediction of Meal Replacement Products Based on Text Mining

摘要: 研究背景：代餐食品作为新时代功能性食品发展下的衍生物，近几年市场规模急剧增长。作为功能性食品的代餐食品的形式、种类、功能不断丰富化，研究代餐食品消费者的购买关注点与消费者特征对于代餐企业找准市场定位，进行精准化的电商营销具有重要的借鉴意义。研究思路：首先通过爬取淘宝和京东的热销代餐产品的消费者评论，利用词频分析、词网络分析和对应分析对消费者购买的影响因素进行文本挖掘，为下一步的结构方程的问卷设计和模型假设提供理论支撑。利用结构方程补充分析了影响因素之间的因果关系和影响因素之间的影响强度关系。最后，基于RapidMiner软件建立了9种机器学习预测模型，进行消费者画像的特征挖掘，分析消费者特征对于购买意愿的影响。研究结论：代餐产品表现出明显的明星效应；消费者的购买影响因素存在多样性强交互关系，但价格属性是其主导因素；学历是消费者画像中最为重要的特征，其中大专到硕士学历的购买意愿最强。

Abstract: Research background: As a derivative of the development of functional food in the new era, the market size of meal replacement food has increased dramatically in recent years. As a functional food, meal replacement food is constantly enriched in form, type and function, and it is important to study the needs of meal replacement food consumers and consumer characteristics to find the market positioning and accurate e-commerce marketing. Research Idea: Firstly, we crawled through the consumer reviews of popular meal replacement products in Taobao and Jingdong, and used word frequency analysis, word network analysis and correspondence analysis to conduct text mining on the factors influencing consumers’ purchase, which provided theoretical support for the next step of questionnaire design and model hypothesis of structural equation system. The causal relationship between the influencing factors and the influence strength relationship between the influencing factors were analyzed using the structural equation system supplement. Finally, nine machine learning prediction models based on RapidMiner software were established for feature mining of consumer portraits to analyze the influence of consumer characteristics on purchase intention. Conclusion: Meal replacement products show an obvious star effect; there is a diversity of strong interactive relationships among consumers’ purchase influencing factors, but the price attribute is the dominant factor; education is the most important characteristic in the consumer portrait, among which the purchase intention of college to master degree is the strongest.