1994~2023年菏泽市降水时空特征分析

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Precipitation in Heze City from 1994 to 2023

摘要: 基于菏泽市1994~2023年的降水量数据资料，采用线性趋势分析方法和Arc GIS空间分析方法，研究分析了菏泽市近30年降水量时间变化趋势和空间变化规律，得到了该地区年降水量时空变化特征。研究结果表明：1) 1994~2023年菏泽市的年平均降水量呈现较不明显的上升趋势，1994~2023年菏泽市年平均降水量线性倾斜率为0.283/10a；2) 从平均降水量的空间分布上来看，菏泽市东南部县区降水量较多，西北部县区降水量较少；3) 从各县区降水量年际变化空间分布上来看，菏泽市东南部县区降水量增加趋势较强，西南部县区降水量增加趋势次之，巨野、定陶及附近地区降水量增加趋势较弱。该结果为本地区的防洪抗旱提供参考依据。

Abstract: Based on the precipitation data of Heze City from 1994 to 2023, linear trend analysis method and Arc GIS spatial analysis method were used to study and analyze the temporal and spatial variation trends of precipitation in Heze City over the past 30 years, and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of annual precipitation in the region were obtained. The research results indicate that: 1) The annual average precipitation in Heze City showed a relatively insignificant upward trend from 1994 to 2023, with a linear slope rate of 0.283/10a from 1994 to 2023; 2) From the spatial distribution of average precipitation, the southeastern counties and districts of Heze City have more precipitation, while the northwestern counties and districts have less precipitation; 3) From the spatial distribution of interannual changes in precipitation in various counties and districts, it can be seen that the increasing trend of precipitation in the southeastern counties and districts of Heze City is stronger, followed by the increasing trend of precipitation in the southwestern counties and districts. The increasing trend of precipitation in Juye, Dingtao, and nearby areas is weaker. This result provides a reference basis for flood control and drought resistance in the local area.