灰色模型在城乡居民心脏病死亡趋势中的建模研究

Modeling Study on Grey Model in the Trend of Heart Disease Mortality among Urban and Rural Residents

摘要: 为对城乡居民未来5年的心脏病死亡率作出预测，本文通过分析2008年至2021年城乡心脏病死亡率的发展趋势，结合Matlab软件，使用MDNGM(1, 1)模型对城乡居民心脏病死亡率建模，并分别与GM(1, 1)模型、DNGM(1, 1)模型的预测结果作对比。结果表明，MDNGM(1, 1)模型对城乡居民心脏病死亡率的预测精度分别为99.797%和99.157%。因此，MDNGM(1, 1)模型可以很好地拟合与预测城乡心脏病死亡率，为预防和控制心脏病提供了科学的预前理论依据。

Abstract: In order to forecast the heart disease mortality rates for urban and rural residents over the next five years, by analyzing trends in heart disease mortality rates in urban and rural areas from 2008 to 2011 and employing Matlab, the MDNGM(1, 1) model was utilized to establish a model for heart disease mortality in this paper. Subsequently, the predictions were compared with those generated by the GM(1, 1) and DNGM(1, 1) models. The results indicated that the MDNGM(1, 1) model achieved a prediction accuracy of 99.797% and 99.157% for urban and rural residents, respectively. Consequently, the MDNGM(1, 1) model effectively models and predicts the urban and rural heart disease mortality rates, offering a scientific advance theoretical basis for the prevention and control of heart disease.