贸易政策不确定性与国际贸易——基于贸易网络的调节效应

Trade Policy Uncertainty and International Trade—The Moderating Effect Based on Trade Networks

摘要: 随着全球化的深入发展，国际贸易日益成为推动经济增长的重要因素。然而，全球贸易保护主义趋势不断加强，各国的贸易政策不确定性日益加剧，给企业的国际贸易活动带来了诸多挑战。本文将从贸易政策不确定性的角度出发，探讨其对国际贸易的影响，并分析贸易网络在这一过程中的调节效应。同时，引入第四代评估理论，为政策制定和企业决策提供科学的评估方法。

Abstract: With the in-depth development of globalization, international trade has increasingly become an important factor driving economic growth. However, the global trend of trade protectionism is constantly strengthening, and the uncertainty of trade policies in various countries is also increasing, posing many challenges to enterprises’ international trade activities. This paper will explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on international trade from the perspective of trade policy uncertainty and analyze the moderating effect of trade networks in this process. At the same time, the fourth-generation evaluation theory is introduced to provide a scientific evaluation method for policy making and enterprise decision-making.