基于ARIMA-Kendall模型的智能家居跨境电商销售情况分析——以速卖通平台某店铺为例

Analysis of Smart Home Cross-Border E-Commerce Sales Based on ARIMA-Kendall Model—Taking a Store on AliExpress Platform as an Example

摘要: 本文旨在通过跨境电商平台速卖通(AliExpress)上的某智能家居品类店铺铺货及销售历史数据，对于未来一季度的销售趋势进行预测，提炼智能家居品类的销售规律，帮助该品类电商运营者掌握季节性变化与热销商品属性，进一步采取有效定价策略，从而促进销量提升。研究使用了2022年5月至2023年4月期间店铺的真实订单数据进行预处理和多维度分析，构建了ARIMA模型以预测销售趋势，并运用Kendall一致性检验来探究热销商品销量与价格的具体关系。分析结果显示商品销量呈上升趋势，价格策略对销量有显著影响，据此本研究从精细化价格管理、动态库存调整、产品多样化与创新、加强技术驱动的数据分析四个维度提出了相关建议。

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to forecast the sales trend in the coming quarter by using the historical data of store rollout and sales of a smart home category on the cross-border e-commerce platform AliExpress, to refine the sales pattern of the smart home category, and to help e-commerce operators of this category grasp the seasonal changes and the attributes of hot-selling commodities, and to further adopt effective pricing strategies, so as to promote the improvement of sales. The study used real order data from stores between May 2022 and April 2023 for preprocessing and multidimensional analysis, constructed an ARIMA model to predict sales trends, and applied the Kendall consistency test to explore the specific relationship between sales volume and price of hot-selling commodities. The analysis results show an upward trend in merchandise sales, and price strategy has a significant impact on sales. Accordingly, this study puts forward relevant recommendations in four dimensions: refined price management, dynamic inventory adjustment, product diversification and innovation, and enhanced technology-driven data analysis.