产业结构升级对居民消费水平的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Residents’ Consumption Level

摘要: 本文基于2002~2021年20年间中国六大城市群的城市面板数据，借助系统GMM估计方法对产业结构升级如何影响城镇居民消费水平进行了深入的实证分析。分析结果表明随着产业结构的不断升级，城镇居民的消费水平得到了有效的推动。在纳入的控制变量中，研究发现对外开放水平对消费水平的影响则呈现出一定的抑制作用。进一步进行异质性分析发现，成渝城市群的影响系数最大，为0.3519。京津冀影响系数最小，仅为0.0665。因此本文提出城市群发展需因地制宜，抓住重心促进消费和强调供给侧改革，推动产业结构升级的建议。

Abstract: Based on the urban panel data of China’s six major urban agglomerations from 2002 to 2021, this paper uses the system GMM estimation method to conduct an in-depth empirical analysis on how industrial structure upgrading affects the consumption level of urban residents. The analysis results show that with the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure, the consumption level of urban residents has been effectively promoted. Among the control variables included, the study found that the impact of the level of opening up to the outside world on the consumption level showed a certain inhibitory effect. Further heterogeneity analysis found that the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration had the largest impact coefficient of 0.3519. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had the smallest impact coefficient, which was only 0.0665. Therefore, this paper proposes that the development of urban agglomerations should be adapted to local conditions, focus on promoting consumption and emphasizing supply-side reforms to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.